Collaborative Panta Rhei paper on drought and flood led by Heidi Kreibich

This paper on “The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management” led by Heidi Kreibich, uses empirical data from 45 paired droughts & floods showing that for unprecedented events risk management is challenging.

In 80% of cases vulnerability was reduced and in 70% management was improved between events. But still impacts were higher in 30% of cases, due to a combination of more severe hazard & higher exposure. For example, Cape Town, despite improved water demand management, the extreme long & severe drought led to higher impacts.

In 80% of cases vulnerability was reduced, in 70% management was improved between events. Still impacts were higher in 30% of cases, due to higher hazard & exposure. For example Cape Town: despite improved water demand management, the extreme long & severe drought led to higher impacts.

We also found an important difference between #floods and #droughts. Changes in vulnerability have been less successful in reducing drought impact than flood impact. Could be due to underlying and compounding factors and spillover effects of risk management. In one case in the Netherlands for example, increased irrigation to reduce agricultural drought impacts caused increased ecological impacts.

We found important differences between floods & droughts. Drought impacts were less reduced by changes in vulnerability than flood impacts. This could be due to spillover effects, for example increased irrigation to reduce agricultural drought impacts caused increased ecological impacts.

Showing the limits to infrastructure. In unprecedented droughts and floods, reservoirs and levees are insufficient resulting in higher damages because of increased dependence on this infrastructure. Non-structural measures help, but removing all risk is an illusion for severe events. Flexible management strategies and coping measures will be needed.

We found 3 success factors in cases with reduced impacts despite increased hazard: (1) effective governance of risk & emergency management, including transnational collaboration; (2) high investments in structural & non-structural measures; (3) improved early warning & real-time control systems. But, no success stories for drought…